Economy

India’s equity markets are poised for heightened volatility as investors navigate a complex mix of domestic policy decisions and global geopolitical risks. The upcoming monetary policy announcement by the Reserve Bank of India is expected to set the tone for market sentiment, with inflation and growth concerns in sharp focus. Simultaneously, escalating tensions in West Asia and fluctuating crude oil prices are adding to uncertainty.

India’s indirect tax collections for fiscal year 2025-26 slightly exceeded government targets, reflecting resilient economic activity across sectors. Total collections, including customs, excise, and Central Goods and Services Tax (CGST), surpassed Rs 15.52 lakh crore, supported by strong domestic demand and trade flows. Customs duty contributed Rs 2.58 lakh crore, excise duty Rs 3.38 lakh crore, and CGST Rs 9.58 lakh crore. 

Pakistan has formally addressed speculation surrounding its repayment of financial deposits to the United Arab Emirates, describing the transaction as a routine and pre-agreed financial obligation. Authorities emphasized that the repayment, estimated at approximately Rs. 16,600 crore (USD 2 billion equivalent), reflects standard bilateral arrangements rather than economic distress. Officials rejected misleading narratives circulating on social media and reaffirmed the strength of Pakistan’s financial position and its long-standing partnership with the UAE.

India’s pharmaceutical sector is being urged to reduce its reliance on imported raw materials and strengthen domestic manufacturing capabilities amid rising global uncertainties. A senior government official emphasized the need to achieve 80–90 per cent self-sufficiency in critical inputs such as APIs and bulk drugs while expanding export markets. Despite India’s presence in nearly 200 countries, significant opportunities remain to diversify supply chains and enhance resilience.

India’s banking sector is witnessing a notable divergence between credit growth and deposit mobilization in the fourth quarter of FY26, signaling evolving structural dynamics in financial intermediation. Leading lenders have reported robust expansion in advances, outpacing deposit growth and reflecting strong demand across retail and corporate segments. While this trend underscores economic momentum, it also raises concerns about liquidity management and funding costs. The imbalance could compel banks to recalibrate deposit strategies, adjust interest rates, and optimize balance sheets.

India’s export sector continues to demonstrate resilience despite escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly in West Asia. However, policymakers caution that prolonged instability could disrupt trade flows, supply chains, and energy imports, potentially impacting overall export performance. With nearly 12–13 per cent of India’s exports directed toward West Asia, the region’s volatility poses a tangible risk. Government officials emphasize the need for diversification, strategic planning, and supply chain recalibration to mitigate adverse effects.

India’s energy supply chain has demonstrated resilience as liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) shipments continue despite escalating tensions in West Asia. An Indian-flagged tanker carrying approximately half a day’s domestic LPG requirement successfully transited the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz, while another vessel from Iran reached Mangalore port. These developments highlight the country’s ability to maintain fuel inflows amid disruptions triggered by regional conflict. The safe passage of multiple tankers underscores coordinated maritime logistics and strategic preparedness.

Pakistan has reversed a sharp fuel price hike following widespread public backlash, announcing a reduction of Rs. 80 per litre in petrol prices. The move comes just a day after unprecedented increases in petrol and diesel rates triggered economic and political pressure. By cutting the petroleum levy, the government has brought petrol prices down to Rs. 378 per litre, offering immediate relief to consumers.

India’s export sector has demonstrated notable resilience in FY26, maintaining growth momentum despite mounting global uncertainties, including geopolitical conflicts and trade disruptions. A senior government official indicated that the country is likely to end the fiscal year with positive export growth, supported by sustained demand and diversified trade strategies. Challenges such as evolving US tariff dynamics and ongoing international conflicts have tested global trade flows, yet India’s merchandise exports have remained stable.

The Chhattisgarh government has launched an ambitious initiative to strengthen its public healthcare infrastructure by establishing a statewide network of diagnostic laboratories under the “Atal Arogya Labs” program. In collaboration with HLL Lifecare Limited, the project aims to expand access to quality diagnostic services across districts, hospitals, and primary health centers. The first facility is set to open in Jagdalpur on April 14.